Asia follows China into an old-fashioned arms race

David Pilling

By David Pilling

Beijing’s build-up is leading rivals to follow suit, a trend likely to gather pace in coming years

Everyone knows about China’s arms build-up. Beijing’s defence budget has risen eightfold in 20 years. In that time it has become comfortably the world’s second-biggest spender on the military. In 2012, the country accounted for nearly 10 per cent of global expenditure, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which monitors defence spending. That was more than Russia and the UK combined, although only a quarter of what the supposedly cash-strapped US laid out on its armed forces, according to official figures.

Less understood, however, is the effect China’s military build-up is having on Asia as a whole. In 2012, for the first year in modern times, Asian states spent more on defence than European ones. From India to South Korea and from Vietnam to Malaysia, governments in the region are ramping up defence spending. Even pacifist Japan, which for years has been cutting its defence outlays, has recently started to reverse the trend as it reorients its defence posture towards what it perceives as a growing Chinese threat.

To some extent the build-up in Asia, at a time when the US and Europe are paring military expenditure, is a “natural” shift to a fast-growing region. As economies grow, they are bound to modernise their defence capabilities. Likewise, as China becomes more dependent on imports of raw materials, whether of iron ore from Brazil or oil from Sudan, it is less keen to outsource control of vital sea lanes to the US.

Yet the arms build-up in Asia has another, more worrying, dimension. This is what Desmond Ball, professor of strategic studies at Australian National University, calls “action-reaction dynamics”. To put it bluntly, there is an old-fashioned arms race going on. Robert Kaplan, an academic and author of Asia’s Cauldron, a new book about the South China Sea, calls it “one of the most under-reported stories in the elite media in decades”.

There are many factors driving this arms race. Most important is the growing strength of China, which is leading countries such as India, Vietnam and the Philippines to think harder about defence. That is exacerbated by concern – Washington’s “pivot” or “rebalance” to Asia notwithstanding – that the days of unchallenged Pax Americana are grinding to a close. Other rumbling diplomatic tensions, notably between India and Pakistan and between South and North Korea, are adding to the impetus.

One of the most noticeable ramp-ups has happened in India, which last year became the biggest foreign buyer of US arms. In 2010, it overtook China as the largest arms importer, a reflection of Beijing’s successful efforts to indigenise supply of its defence needs. India’s purchases from the US are intended to close the technology gap. France’s Dassault is also waiting for New Delhi to finalise a long-dragged-out deal to buy Rafale fighter jets up to the value of $20bn. New Delhi, which in 2011 devoted a whopping $44bn to defence – only marginally less than it spent on education – has 45 warships and submarines under construction, among the world’s largest naval building programmes.

Purchases of submarines are multiplying. Altogether, Asian nations are expected to buy 110 in the next 15 years

India is by no means alone. Malaysia’s defence spending has more than doubled since 2000. Singapore, pursuing what is affectionately known as the “poison shrimp” strategy, is among the world’s top 10 arms importers. The smallest nation in southeast Asia, it has the biggest air force.

Across Asia, purchases of submarines, the “new bling” in the words of Bernard Loo Fook Weng, a Singaporean defence expert, are multiplying. India, South Korea and Vietnam, the latter concerned about what it sees as Chinese encroachment in the South China Sea, plan to buy six apiece by the end of this decade. Australia, in the midst of its most important defence modernisation since the second world war, wants 20 more within the next two decades. Altogether, Asian nations are expected to buy 110 submarines in the next 15 years.

South Korea, too, has ramped up its defence capabilities and is soon expected to become a top 10 global arms exporter. Even Japan, which has had a self-imposed ban on weapons exports since the war, is about to relax restrictions. That is partly so that it can participate in multinational weapons developments programmes, such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter developed by the US with eight other nations.

There are two obvious concerns about a burgeoning arms race that is only likely to gather pace in coming years. One is that, especially in poorer countries such as India, Vietnam and China, where there are still hundreds of millions of poor people, public funds are being lavished on prestige military purchases with no social value. The other concern is just the opposite. When it comes to arms, the only thing worse than spending on useless equipment is spending on weapons that actually prove useful.

Almost every Asian nation is building up its capacity in the air and on the sea. The people of the region must hope that it is a complete waste of money.

Source: ft.com, 2-4-2014